Introduction
One thing seems fairly certain now. If an Islamic radical group were to seize power by force, the world would likely legitimize it and overlook its past actions. Until such a group captures power, however, it is either fought against resolutely or treated as an adversary. Recent history underscores this trend—Afghanistan in 2021 and now Syria in 2024.
Context: The last thing India needs is the revival of Islamic radicalism in Bangladesh.
Taliban’s Capture of Power
When the Taliban took over Afghanistan on August 15, 2021, the consequences were immediate and stark. Thirteen U.S. troops lost their lives in an Islamic State (IS) suicide bombing. Additionally, $7.1 billion worth of U.S. weaponry was abandoned in Afghanistan.
Global Response: Cooperation with the Taliban
Despite these events, major powers, including the U.S., the West, China, and Russia, sought to engage with the Taliban. The West rationalized this cooperation by arguing it would steer the Taliban away from supporting terrorism and promote women’s and minorities’ rights. Promises of an “inclusive government” were discussed, but democracy was notably absent from the agenda.
The UN also adopted a conciliatory stance. Deborah Lyons, the then UN Special Representative to Afghanistan, remarked to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) that the Taliban was ‘misunderstood’.
Treated with Kid Gloves
The irony of international actions became apparent. Before the Taliban’s takeover, the “Troika Plus” (U.S., China, Russia, and Pakistan) coordinated efforts in Afghanistan to sideline India, ignoring its strategic interests. Even basic references to India’s involvement in Afghanistan, such as the Heart of Asia Conference, were omitted from UNSC statements.
India’s Role During the Taliban Takeover
In August 2021, India held the UNSC presidency. The UNSC Resolution 2593, passed on August 30, bore India’s imprint, emphasizing that Afghan soil must not be used for terrorist activities. This resolution explicitly mentioned terrorist organizations like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, targeting Pakistani terrorist networks associated with ISIL (Daesh) and al-Qaeda.
However, by December 2021, the UNSC allowed the Taliban to access donor funds directly, with little accountability for implementing UNSCR 2593. This leniency enabled the Taliban to backtrack on commitments to women’s education, inclusive governance, and minority rights. The world’s apathy has allowed the Taliban’s violations to persist.
Now, Syria and Bangladesh
Syria in 2024
A similar scenario unfolded in Syria. Radical Islamic leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, once linked to al-Qaeda, seized power, toppling President Bashar al-Assad. Jolani’s group, Hay’at Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), still features on the U.S. State Department’s list of terror groups.
In a move reminiscent of its engagement with the Taliban, the U.S. removed the $10 million bounty on al-Jolani. This shift signals to extremist groups worldwide that seizing power can lead to legitimacy and escape from prosecution. The ripple effects are evident in Africa, where extremist groups in Mali and elsewhere adopt IS and al-Qaeda techniques to destabilize governments. However, global attention remains fixed on Ukraine and West Asia.
Bangladesh: Brewing Situation Closer to Home
India faces a growing crisis in Bangladesh. The collapse of the elected government, driven by autocratic policies, has paved the way for U.S.-backed interim leadership under Muhammad Yunus. This government appears tolerant of Islamic radical groups, posing a direct threat to minorities and regional stability.
When Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League assumed power in 2008, Bangladesh experienced free elections and rejection of the violent history associated with Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its radical Islamist allies. However, the 2024 military coup has revitalized groups like Jamaat-e-Islami, Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT), Islami Chhatra Shibir, Hefazat-e-Islam, Jagrata Muslim Janata Bangladesh (JMJB), and Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISKP).
Radical factions exploit the current instability, targeting minorities and promoting anti-India rhetoric. These groups aim to dismantle Sheikh Hasina’s legacy while deepening divisions within Bangladesh. India must avoid being baited into polarization but also cannot afford to overlook the resurgence of extremism.
Past Political Shifts in Bangladesh
In 2008, the Bangladesh Army’s neutral stance allowed free and fair elections, leading to the Awami League’s victory. However, in 2024, the situation has drastically changed. The popular student protests against autocratic governance and the subsequent military coup have given radical groups a new platform. The release of extremists like Jashimuddin Rahmani, head of the ABT, further exacerbates the crisis.
Religious Hate Rising Globally
Religious intolerance is a growing global issue. In 2021-2022, India’s Permanent Representative to the UN highlighted the rise of religiophobia against non-Abrahamic faiths, including Hindus, Sikhs, and Buddhists. India has consistently condemned all forms of religious hate, both within its borders and abroad.
While India’s focus on Bangladesh may have waned, it cannot ignore the renewed threat of extremism. The past 16 years of stability and progress under Sheikh Hasina demonstrate the benefits of a strong bilateral relationship.
The Larger Picture
Avoiding a Religious Lens
Viewing the crisis solely through a religious lens risks exacerbating divisions. Islamic radicals and Yunus’s advisers aim to polarize their country and bait India into overreaction. Instead, India must maintain its broader perspective, prioritizing stable relations and long-term regional security.
India’s Historical Support
India’s steadfast support during the 2009 Bangladesh Rifles revolt was crucial in preserving democracy. This historical precedent underscores the importance of continued engagement to prevent Bangladesh from descending into an Islamic coup.
Conclusion
For Bangladesh, avoiding an Islamic coup is critical to preserving its democratic gains. The country’s experience with democracy since 2008 makes a return to autocratic or extremist rule unlikely to succeed in the long term. The hope lies in the resilience of the Bangladeshi people and their commitment to democratic values.