Introduction
Just days before the swearing-in of United States President-elect Donald Trump, and a few hours before outgoing President Joe Biden gave his final address to the American people on January 15, 2025, a significant development unfolded in the Middle East. Israel and Hamas announced the long-elusive ceasefire agreement over Gaza had been struck. The state of Qatar, serving as a mediator, confirmed that the deal would take effect on January 19, 2025, a day before Mr. Trump assumed office. Central to this agreement is an exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
The Deck and the Cards
Palestinian Celebration in Gaza
The announcement of the ceasefire sparked celebrations in Gaza, where Palestinians took to the streets. After enduring over 15 months of devastation from Israeli military operations—a response to the October 7, 2023, terror attack—this deal offered a rare moment of relief. Hamas, in its statement, claimed responsibility for achieving the ceasefire, asserting it was an effort to halt “Zionist aggression” and end the “massacres and war of genocide” affecting Gaza’s steadfast population.
Political Maneuvering in Washington DC
The ceasefire was a product of coordinated political efforts in Washington. Both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden reportedly worked together to secure the deal, each attempting to claim credit. For Mr. Trump, the agreement symbolized a promise fulfilled, showcasing renewed American strength and leadership on the global stage. For Mr. Biden, it marked a final effort to shape his legacy.
The Role of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s role in this geopolitical maneuvering adds another layer of complexity. Widely believed to prefer Mr. Trump’s approach to the Middle East over Mr. Biden’s, Mr. Netanyahu’s agreement to the ceasefire likely aimed to align Israel more closely with the incoming administration. While he has long insisted on the complete elimination of Hamas, this deal represents a strategic departure, allowing Mr. Netanyahu to portray a willingness to negotiate, albeit at significant political cost.
On Hamas and Israel
Diminished Capacities of Hamas and Hezbollah
Over the past year, Israeli operations have significantly weakened Hamas and Hezbollah through leadership decapitation efforts. However, this has not fully neutralized their capabilities. Outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted that Hamas has recruited as many new militants as it has lost.
Challenges in the Ceasefire’s Political Track
The absence of a robust political framework to underpin the ceasefire raises concerns about its sustainability. Hamas is poised to retain control of Gaza, with no visible progress toward integrating the group into a broader Palestinian political ecosystem. Meanwhile, both Hamas and Israel remain opposed to the internationally backed two-state solution, underscoring their deep-seated ideological divides.
Netanyahu’s Strategic Calculations
For Mr. Netanyahu, the ceasefire’s fragile status quo presents an opportunity. Should Hamas resume attacks, he can leverage the situation to secure support from Mr. Trump, reinforcing Israel’s military posture. This dynamic reflects a calculated gamble, balancing short-term gains with the potential for renewed conflict.
Gaza and Its Rebuilding
Critical Aid to Gaza
Amid the political intricacies, the most urgent need is delivering critical aid to Gaza. Years of conflict have left the region in dire straits, with acute shortages of food and medical supplies.
Rebuilding Gaza and Political Mechanisms
Efforts to rebuild Gaza may remain premature until alternative political structures are established within the Palestinian territories. The Arab powers have a unique opportunity to influence this process, potentially reshaping the Palestinian Authority to assume a more central role in governance and negotiations.
The Two-State Solution
Despite international advocacy, the two-state solution remains a distant goal. The current ceasefire offers a momentary reprieve but does little to address the structural issues impeding long-term peace.
Conclusion
The international community must act decisively to ensure the sustainability of this ceasefire. West Asia’s future—including initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor and potential expansions of the Abraham Accords—depends on regional stability. The normalization of Saudi Arabia-Israel relations and the management of regional conflicts are pivotal to this momentum. Ultimately, the success of this ceasefire hinges on the collective efforts of regional powers and their ability to navigate the intricate geopolitical landscape.